Feb iii, 2022

  • Brett Okamoto

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    Brett Okamoto

    ESPN Staff Author

    • MMA columnist for ESPN.com
    • Analyst for "MMA Live"
    • Covered MMA for Las Vegas Sun

  • Marc Raimondi

Conor McGregor is the biggest star in combat sports. Francis Ngannou is the baddest human on the planet. Nate Diaz is one of the UFC's most beloved needle movers.

Every fourth dimension one of them steps into the Octagon, fans get excited. Only right now, all of their UFC futures are in limbo.

McGregor, the erstwhile two-partitioning UFC champion, is recovering from a broken leg suffered final July, leaving the timing of his render in question. Ngannou, the UFC heavyweight champion and a breathtaking knockout artist, has fought out his contract and might not return to the UFC cage at all. And Diaz has simply i fight left on his deal -- how can the UFC brand the about of information technology?

Marc Raimondi and Brett Okamoto wait into the hereafter and try to sort out what'due south next for these iii UFC mainstays.

How did Nate Diaz and the UFC get to this point?

Raimondi: Diaz cashed in big subsequently submitting McGregor at UFC 196 in March 2016. He signed a massive v-fight deal with the UFC alee of the McGregor rematch at UFC 202 in August of that same twelvemonth. Diaz lost that fight to McGregor via bulk decision, but the bad boy from Stockton, California, just rose in popularity. The more screen time Diaz has received over the by several years, the brighter his star has shined -- regardless of the consequence.

On this v-fight contract, Diaz is i-3 leading into the last fight of his bargain. I of those fights was a blockbuster at Madison Foursquare Garden against Jorge Masvidal for the mythical BMF title, which followed his win over former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. He nearly finished top welterweight Leon Edwards in his nigh recent bout at UFC 263, merely outside of that moment, Edwards dominated and the bout resulted in a unanimous determination loss.

Although he's no longer in his prime, the weed-smoking, mean-mugging Diaz still has a cult post-obit. He turns 37 this year, and his reputation every bit a real fighter who will scrap -- inside or outside the muzzle -- with anyone even so holds. Diaz is unpredictable and politically incorrect, and that's why many fans love him.

The question now is, will he keep to be that guy in the UFC, or will he move on? Diaz is a bankable box-office star, and he will garner significant interest every bit a gratuitous agent if he chooses that path. The UFC extended the fourth dimension on his contract for vi months in late 2022 after Diaz reportedly turned down a fight, which the promotion can do contractually. So, it's unlikely we'll run across Diaz in the Octagon until the summer at the earliest. That volition exist the final fight on his contract and a pivotal one for his future.

Whom should the last fight on Diaz's UFC contract be against?

Okamoto: Conor McGregor. Diaz wanted to fight out his contract at the end of concluding year and the beginning of this year, merely the UFC is being selective about the final fight on his bargain. The McGregor-Diaz trilogy is a massive fight, and the UFC doesn't desire to lose its opportunity to make information technology. At present, the promotion also can't expect Diaz to sit and wait forever, and when it comes to McGregor'due south schedule, there are never guarantees. Merely for the time existence, that'southward the fight the UFC wants to make for Diaz, and no one tin can blame the promotion for feeling that way. Information technology's the fight to brand.

Raimondi: Dustin Poirier. Diaz wants that fight, then does Poirier. The UFC is interested, too. Right now, information technology'due south just a timing issue. The UFC extended Diaz'southward contract, so it technically does not have to offering him some other fight until late spring or early on summertime. Diaz and Poirier were supposed to fight at MSG in 2018, but the bout cruel through. There is bad blood there. And a win over Diaz would help Poirier bounce dorsum from his title loss to Charles Oliveira. For Diaz, Poirier represents a guy he doesn't like and a big name who beat out McGregor twice last year.

The UFC will be very tempted to practice McGregor vs. Diaz 3. But there are yet questions about McGregor's wellness, as he fractured a leg confronting Poirier last July. He said he would exist able to spar in Apr, merely there'southward no actual time frame however for his return. Plus, if Diaz wants to hit the open up market, he'd be in farthermost demand coming off a trilogy victory over McGregor. It's office of the fight business to send away an outgoing fighter with the well-nigh challenging fight possible. But the UFC might be seduced by the McGregor-Diaz trilogy payday.

What could life expect similar for Diaz if he leaves the UFC?

Okamoto: Lucrative. Either way, Diaz's future is attractive, but he doesn't need the UFC to get paid. Whatsoever MMA promotion would dearest to have him and might fifty-fifty be willing to sign him to one-fight deals if that's what it takes. Interest in Diaz wouldn't be tied merely to the United States or MMA.

A boxing match against Jake Paul is an obvious possibility, but not the merely i. Life outside the UFC would probable involve Diaz partnering with the highest bidder, probably on short-term deals that would let him the freedom to pursue the most profitable opportunities as they nowadays themselves. It would mean less relevant fights for him in terms of whatever championship aspirations but plenty of money and flexibility.

Raimondi: Diaz will control a boatload of money regardless of what happens in the final fight of his deal. He'due south one of the biggest names in MMA and one of the biggest names in combat sports. Diaz's fights confronting McGregor are among the highest-selling pay-per-views in UFC history. Any he does side by side, Diaz is a viable pay-per-view headliner as an A-side or a B-side.

Information technology's unlikely Diaz would go somewhere like a PFL (Professional Fighters League) or Bellator, at to the lowest degree not on a long-term contract. Only Diaz and his brother Nick do have a good relationship with Bellator president Scott Coker going dorsum to the days of Nick fighting for Strikeforce.

Battle would make a lot of sense. Diaz is a longtime grooming partner of former top pound-for-pound boxer Andre Ward, and Ward has praised Diaz'south ability in the squared circle. He could challenge himself there, maybe against Jake Paul, which would be one of the well-nigh significant pay-per-view events of the year if information technology happened. I could imagine Diaz boxing UFC legend Anderson Silva, who went 2-0 as a boxer in 2021.

Prediction: How does this end for Diaz?

Okamoto: I think Diaz will re-sign with the UFC. The Diaz-McGregor trilogy will happen in 2022, and before that fight, Diaz and the UFC will come to terms with a new deal. Diaz wants to fight in a premier organization. Exploring other options will be tantalizing, but ultimately he'll re-sign.

Raimondi: Diaz tries his manus at battle. Mayhap with Triller, perhaps against Paul. Perchance both. The restrictiveness of the UFC doesn't e'er work great with Diaz, who is a free spirit and prefers to do things his way. Boxing would allow him greater flexibility and shorter contracts. The massive paydays won't hurt, either.

How did Conor McGregor and the UFC get to this point?

Okamoto: McGregor signed a massive 6-fight contract with the UFC in 2018, just before his blockbuster title fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Since then, McGregor has fought four times and recently confirmed two fights left on his deal.

How did McGregor arrive at this spot in his contract? The pandemic and the lost year of 2022 played a role. McGregor went into that year with talks of a "flavour." He said he wanted to be active, and while some things the Irishman says are rant, behind the scenes, there was a lot of support to support what he was saying. He was in a adept place. He was motivated.

There was frustration when the pandemic hitting, and he couldn't volume fights timely. His January 2022 fight against Dustin Poirier was 1 McGregor tried to force the UFC into booking past announcing beforehand he intended to do it for clemency exterior of the promotion.

It'southward also worth noting the Manny Pacquiao rumors that swirled ahead of that fight against Poirier a year ago. Had McGregor crush Poirier, there is a potent chance he would accept boxed Pacquiao later in the year.

Who knows what bear upon those factors would take had on his contract status? As information technology stands, it has been ii relatively inactive, disappointing years for McGregor leading into the final 2 fights of his deal.

Whom should the last fight on McGregor's UFC contract be against?

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one:37

Dana White on when Conor McGregor could render to the UFC

Dana White evaluates Conor McGregor's 2022 in the UFC and discusses when he thinks "The Notorious" could render in 2022.

Okamoto: It depends on how his next fight goes. If McGregor returns from his leg injury to a trilogy bout confronting Diaz and wins, the UFC likely books him in a lightweight championship fight. That'southward unfair to the rest of the 155-pound division, simply it'southward reality. McGregor against Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush -- information technology honestly doesn't affair who it is. Some of those matchups would be bigger than others, but if it's McGregor trying to win a championship fight for the starting time time since 2016, information technology's money in the banking concern.

If he were to lose to Diaz, information technology'd be about finding McGregor an opponent that makes the most money. If the UFC is ever in a situation where it has but ane fight left with McGregor, expect the promotion to want to cash in as much as possible. Perchance Jorge Masvidal or Max Holloway?

Raimondi: There are so many variables here. When does McGregor come back from a broken leg? Who is his first opponent dorsum? Information technology does seem like there is a swell of interest in doing McGregor-Diaz iii for McGregor'due south comeback fight, but it's no lock. Permit's say that's the i, for argument'due south sake. If McGregor wins that bout, it's enormous, and he could call his shot. More than probable, the UFC would book him in a championship fight at that point.

The reason is twofold. One, McGregor is the biggest star in the sport'southward history, and his fighting for the title is a surefire blockbuster. If McGregor wins and becomes champion -- boom, the UFC'southward champions clause kicks in, and the promotion would extend his contract.

Those two things are probably the best-case scenario for the UFC. If McGregor faces Diaz next and loses, expect the UFC to renegotiate a new deal with McGregor or book him in a very tough fight for the last bout on his contract. Also, exercise non dominion out a potential fourth fight against Poirier somewhere in there, every bit McGregor likely feels like in that location is unfinished business organisation.

What could life look similar for McGregor if he leaves the UFC?

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0:24

Conor McGregor stares down Max Holloway from home

Conor McGregor posts a video of himself pacing his living room and staring downwards Max Holloway before Holloway's fight.

Okamoto: One battle match per twelvemonth, mayhap. If McGregor leaves the UFC, I don't run into a globe where he regularly competes in MMA for any other promotion. The money fights don't be for him outside of the UFC. Don't get me wrong: Anything that McGregor touches turns to gold, but gold isn't enough these days. The only MMA fights that make sense for McGregor in terms of prestige, name value and marketability are in the UFC. If he were to fight out his contract, the most likely path forrad would be one wildly lucrative boxing match every 12 to 18 months.

Raimondi: McGregor Sports & Entertainment takes flight. McGregor could become a fighter-promoter the mode Floyd Mayweather has washed for years. He could build his fight cards in MMA or boxing and lend his name and vocalization to them every bit a front man. Once or twice a yr, he could compete in the principal events for his promotion against opponents he could handpick. McGregor Sports & Entertainment is already an entity and was i of McGregor's promoters for the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight. The Irishman'southward business organization is undoubtedly something he would like to grow in the future, whether he'southward in the UFC or outside of it.

There would be some lucrative boxing matches out there for McGregor. Paul has already called him out several times. At one point, it seemed likely that McGregor would box Pacquiao. Heck, Mayweather vs. McGregor two could even come up into the fold if McGregor is a complimentary amanuensis. McGregor would have the ability to brand an obscene amount of money, and as someone who cherishes the Forbes list of highest-paid athletes every year, that could be appealing.

Prediction: How does this end for McGregor?

Okamoto: Re-signs with the UFC. McGregor and the UFC have had problems over the years, just they they remain relatively positive as partners because of the mutually beneficial relationship. If McGregor still has an itch to box, the UFC could go backside his ambition again, and I believe it would exercise so once again under the correct circumstances. I don't see either side walking away from the other subsequently this contract is up.

Raimondi: McGregor is worth so much to the UFC. It would exist shocking if McGregor went elsewhere. And honestly, despite some ups and downs over the years, McGregor has seemed pretty happy with the UFC, too. They have been excellent partners for each other. There's a world where both sides could be satisfied with a future deal that allows McGregor to box. Peradventure McGregor fifty-fifty gets that pale in the UFC he has been asking for since 2016.

How did Francis Ngannou and the UFC go to this bespeak?

Raimondi: The animosity between the UFC and Ngannou has been building up for years.

In 2018, following Ngannou's title loss to Stipe Miocic, UFC president Dana White said in interviews that Ngannou'due south ego had begun to get the all-time of him. Ngannou wasn't a fan of those comments and the two have not seen eye to eye since and then.

The relationship was strained farther after Ngannou won the UFC heavyweight title from Miocic at UFC 260 in March 2021. The UFC wanted Ngannou to turn around and defend the title last August against Derrick Lewis at UFC 265. Ngannou had already planned a trip to his home country of Cameroon in the belatedly spring and early summer, though, and he wouldn't exist gear up for an early on Baronial date.

Rather than wait for Ngannou, who said he could fight in September, the UFC decided to accept Lewis fight Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title instead. That didn't sit down right with Ngannou, who had just won the title five months earlier and had sat around waiting for his earned title fight for more than a year while Miocic and Daniel Cormier settled their trilogy. Behind the scenes, Ngannou's contract was nearing its end with no extension in place.

Gane concluded up chirapsia Lewis, setting upwardly a title bout betwixt Ngannou and Gane -- a pair of onetime teammates in Paris -- last month at UFC 270. In the lead-up to the fight, Ngannou felt like the UFC did him no favors. He said he thought the promotion fix him upwards to walk by Gane and Ngannou's estranged former coach, Fernand Lopez, at Madison Foursquare Garden last November to build drama for the tour. The incident was defenseless on video, with Ngannou walking by and ignoring Lopez and Gane. And so, sparring footage between Ngannou and Gane surfaced, making Gane look practiced. Ngannou said he thought the UFC was again messing with him.

Had Gane defeated Ngannou last month, Ngannou would have been a free agent. Just considering he won, the UFC's champions clause kicks in and Ngannou remains nether contract for one year or 3 fights, whichever comes earliest. The 35-year-erstwhile knockout artist has been adamant nearly wanting to box before retiring, and that's ane of several sticking points with the UFC. Ngannou has said he is willing to look out the year and not compete once more nether this contract. To further muddy things, Ngannou went into the Gane fight with a torn MCL and damaged ACL, which will require surgery. Ngannou will exist out for at to the lowest degree nine months.

Whom should Ngannou's last fight be against?

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one:28

White: Not putting belt on Ngannou had nothing to do with 'disrespect'

Dana White acknowledges he didn't put the belt on Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 but says no disrespect was meant past it.

Okamoto: Nosotros might have already seen Ngannou's final fight in the UFC. If he doesn't sign a new deal over the side by side twelvemonth, and so I don't see him walking to the Octagon ever again. And then, it's hard to answer this question -- or it's straightforward, depending on how you look at information technology. If he doesn't stay with the UFC, the reply to this particular question is Gane, and it has already happened. He won't have a big "last fight" ship-off.

Raimondi: It might have already happened against Gane. Ngannou has said he won't compete again under this current contract with the UFC, which pays but a guaranteed $600,000 per fight. So, he might wait out the twelvemonth and become a free agent. He said concluding week on "The MMA 60 minutes" that he has left nigh $7 1000000 in offers from the UFC on the table considering accepting that meant calculation more fights to his UFC contract.

Ngannou too said that the UFC emailed his amanuensis, Marquel Martin, threatening to sue him the night of Ngannou's fight against Gane. The UFC's claim, Ngannou noted, is that Martin had improper conversations with Jake Paul's team virtually boxing while Ngannou was under UFC contract.

The two sides are not on solid terms correct now, and with Ngannou facing an extended amount of time on the shelf because of the human knee injury, information technology seems similar there'due south a expert take chances he'll enter free agency without fighting again. If he does fight again for the UFC, It volition be under a newly negotiated contract -- rendering this question largely moot.

What could life expect similar for Ngannou if he leaves the UFC?

Okamoto: That's an interesting question, as he turned down multiple offers from the UFC on a new bargain. I believe life outside the UFC would include the one thing Ngannou seems to desire more than anything: a loftier-profile battle lucifer. I think it'southward realistic for him to book a fight against someone such as Tyson Fury or Deontay Wilder in 2023. Beyond that, information technology gets a footling cloudy. Ngannou is a fantastic competitor and the best MMA heavyweight on the planet, just no, I'm not also fond of his chances against a seasoned heavyweight boxer. I retrieve the boxing play could very well be a lucrative one-and-done, and then nosotros'd run into him back in MMA. An organization such as the PFL could be a good fit.

Raimondi: This is an easy question to answer. Merely listen to Ngannou's interviews. The man'south dream, going back to his time excavation sand mines in Cameroon, has been to become the boxing world champion. That'due south why he left Republic of cameroon for Kingdom of morocco and why he hopped on a raft nigh the Strait of Gibraltar en route to Europe. Ngannou was looking for someone to train him in boxing, and MMA was just something suggested to him in Paris by onetime passenger vehicle Didier Carmont. It turns out, he was very good at it -- good enough to become the UFC heavyweight champion.

Only Ngannou'south heart has always been with boxing, and he seems adamant that he will box before he retires. Fury has already called him out on social media. Even if Ngannou would be a massive underdog, that could be a real fight. Ngannou is a big enough proper name and he certainly looks the part of getting a fight with Fury, Wilder or Anthony Joshua. Win or lose, the payday will exist massive. Fury is making north of $32 million for his adjacent bout confronting Dillian Whyte, and Ngannou has a more than prominent name than Whyte.

Prediction: How does this terminate for Ngannou?

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0:41

Ngannou says he won't fight again without new UFC contract

Francis Ngannou tells Brett Okamoto he doesn't programme to fight again without a new UFC contract.

Okamoto: I was always pretty optimistic that Ngannou and the UFC would somewhen figure it out and he would sign a new bargain. But afterwards hearing him talk at the UFC 270 postfight news conference, I am less so. He didn't just sound like someone who was willing to go out the UFC; Ngannou sounded like someone who was resigned to the likelihood he is leaving the UFC. There'due south no rush right now to finalize a decision, as Ngannou is under contract through 2022 and he tin't fight anyhow considering of injury.

A lot can modify over a year, giving the two sides fourth dimension to hash something out. This state of affairs is impossible to predict. But taking my lead from what Ngannou said at UFC 270, I'll put his chances of leaving the UFC at 51%. Either manner, nosotros seem to be heading for an interim heavyweight title fight. Given the doubtfulness around Ngannou's time to come and the fact he needs knee surgery, an acting title fight would make sense. And the fight to brand for the interim title would be Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones.

Raimondi: Ngannou is going to box. The question is whether it'due south with the UFC'southward approval or as a free agent. Either matter could happen, though information technology certain feels like at this point that Ngannou and the UFC are on the outs, especially given the legal threats to Martin, on fight night, no less. That's not to say this is a washed deal. There is enough of fourth dimension for the UFC and Ngannou to make a bargain. Merely if they don't, one would await Ngannou's next fight to be in a boxing ring old in 2023 against a big heavyweight name.